FCPO 每日棕油市场研究报告

guan81

28th April 2011 午市报告

BMD Price:-
Settle Change
May 3,391 +21
June 3,321 +16
July 3,293 +15
Aug 3,280 +17

Market higher due to:
• Short covering
• Higher crude oil & soyoil prices during Asian trading hours.
o U.S. crude futures rose to their highest in 2-1/2 years on Thursday as the Federal Reserve
appeared in no rush to tighten its monetary policy, weakening the dollar, and as gasoline
stockpiles fell more than double the forecast.

Technical:
• RSI at 44.26 (Slight Oversold)
• Support: RM 3,250 / RM 3,232 / RM 3,212
• Resistant: RM 3,332 / RM 3,350 / RM 3,382

请以英文为标准

股市走高，原因是：
•空头回补
•更高的原油在亚洲交易时段及豆油价格。
Ø美国原油期货价格上涨到最高周四美联储两年半以来
似乎并不急于收紧货币政策，削弱了美元，作为汽油
库存降幅超过预期的两倍。

技术支持：
•相对强弱指数在44.26（微超卖）
•支持：马币3,250/马币3,232/3,212马币
•性能：马币3,332/3,350马币/3,382马币

guan81

29th April 2011 早市报告

BMD Price:
           Settle    Net Change    Volume    Open  Interest
May      3,350            -41         69            5,777
June      3,279           -42         1,156       20,204
July       3,250          -43         5,706         26,666
August   3,248         -32         2,395          13,764\

Market traded lower due to:
o Down in major vegetable oil bourse's
o Sluggish demand
o Rising output growth in both Malaysia and Indonesia

Market direction:

a) BMD CPO futures are lower midday as talk of strong production growth in Malaysia weighs; the
market will find it difficult rebound today with Malaysia's April output likely to show at least a 10%
increase from the previous month.
o From a fundamental perspective, palm oil could see further declines, at least until festive
demand picks up.
o Benchmark July CPO is trading MYR43 or 1.3%, lower at MYR3, 250/ton. Palm oil has declined
2.7% since the beginning of April.

b) BMD CPO futures also lower as weak overnight soyoil, slumping consumer demand trigger profittaking;
bearish sentiment surrounding demand prospects for the global vegoil market will drag
prices later in the day.

c) Traders say April export demand has remained weak; cargo surveyors Intertek and SGS estimates
due Saturday and Tuesday, respectively.

d) Technical:
• RSI: 40.43 (Slight oversold)
• Support: RM 3,212 / RM 3,180 / RM 3,150
• Resistance: RM 3,280 / RM 3,300 / RM 3,332

请以英文为标准

市场走低，原因是：
Ø下主要植物油证交所
Ø需求不振
Ø崛起在马来西亚和印尼的产量增长

市场方向：

一）的BMD毛棕榈油期货午盘较低，作为在马来西亚生产增长强劲重谈;的
市场会发现与马来西亚四月份的产量可能难以反弹，今日显示至少10％
前一个月增加。
从基本面看啊，棕榈油可能还会下降，至少要等到节日
需求回升。
Ø基准日棕榈油是交易MYR43或1.3％，在MYR3，250/ton低。棕榈油下降
2.7％，自四月开始。

二）的BMD毛棕榈油期货隔夜豆油弱也较低，消费需求低迷引发profittaking;
周围的悲观情绪，为全球植物油市场需求前景将拖累
价格在当天晚些时候。

三）交易商说，4月出口需求仍然疲弱;船运调查机构Intertek和SGS的估计
由于周六和周二分别。

d）技术：
•相对强弱指数：40.43（微超卖）
•支持：马币3,212/3,180马币/3,150马币
•电阻：马币3,280/3,300马币/3,332马币