如果日本真的破产，世界经济肯定会受到影响？

plouffle0789

“日本破产”不是耸人听闻的预言

4月29日，日本《产经新闻》报道指出，希腊国债危机正在动摇着世界金融市场，拖累全球股市普遍下跌。28日，东京股市大幅走低，日经平均股价曾一时暴跌330点，到收盘时还是跌了287.87点，至10,924.79点，跌幅达到2.6%。这是东京股市2月5日以来最大单日点数跌幅，同时结束此前连续两个交易日的涨势。

专家分析指出，希腊债务危机的背景是政府面对财政重建问题可供选择的方法越来越少，其结构性的财政赤字问题在日本也是存在的。日本的国债如果能够继续在国内消化，就暂时还不会出现希腊那样的危机。但是，日本国债还在高筑，伴随着高龄化社会问题的日益深刻，储蓄率今后会下降，风险也就会越来越高，整个国家陷入财政困境乃至经济危机的可能性随时可能出现。

《朝日新闻》报道希腊债务危机的新进展后指出，日本发行的国债比西方其他工业国家都高，经济状况犹如游走钢丝般危险，日本有可能重蹈希腊覆辙陷入债务危机。报道指出，日本国债在明年可能会突破GDP的200%。基于2010财年475万亿日元的GDP总量计算，估计日本的公共债务会达到950万亿日元，摊到每个日本人身上的债务约为750万日元。报道援引专家分析称，“如果不增发更多的国债，日本可能会在2011年出现财政破绽”。

笔者援引了这些分析，想说明一点——日本正在面临着国家破产的危机。这不是耸人听闻，而是一个日益严峻的现实。

当然，“冰冻三尺非一日之寒”，日本可能陷入“债务危机泥潭”的征兆早已显现，只不过近期这种趋势已经愈加明显而已。就在今年1月，国际评级机构标准普尔已经将日本AA长期主权信用评级前景由“稳定”调整为“负面”。需要指出的是，日本国债持有者的结构，与美国等有着明显的差别。美国国债的持有者主要是中国、日本、英国等世界其他国家投资机构和投资者，而日本国债的主要购买持有者几乎全部为日本国内机构投资者，这是日元和美元国货币地位差距的必然产物，也意味着日本债务危机引起“连锁崩塌”影响的后果对其国内的打击将是连续而致命的，因为没有国际资本来“埋单”和缓冲。

目前，日本的政府债券绝大部分是由日本的公共部门、银行、保险公司等持有，在这样的持有结构下，这个“债务泡沫”的承受力将加大。不过，这种自己玩自己的“日本风格”，在上个世纪的泡沫经济破灭中并未显示出真有多大实效：银行、企业、财团间的相互持股并未能阻止日本股市泡沫的崩盘，银行系统贷款支撑下的土地、楼市泡沫最终还是破灭了。

对于日本的现任经济决策者们而言，既然开了这辆没有刹车的汽车，唯一可解燃眉之急的方案只能是将这个车子越开越远地去“挑战极限”，飞速膨胀的债务赤字就是这种“无奈”的最佳见证。“日本破产”的可能性，也就存在着。（写于2010年4月29日）■

美媒:日本濒临破产边缘 国民一出生负债8万美元 2010年06月12日 22:46   

环球网记者朱盈库报道，据美国世界新闻网6月12日报道，进入2010年以后，“日本破产”的传言突然甚嚣尘上。　　日本政府的税收，已跌破37万亿日元(10年前为52万亿日元)，但是政府2009年度的支出总额为92万亿日元，这个结果使国债发行额高达44万亿日元。
　　当然这还不是让日本国民震惊的消息，问题是，到2010年3月，日本多年来累积的债务数额，包括国家和地方的长期债务，已经高达949万亿日元(约10万亿多美元)。
　　以日本现在GDP总额500万亿日元来计算，日本债务已经是GDP的1.97倍，每一个国民一出生就要负担约750万日元(约8万多美元)债务，是发达国家中的劣等生。经济评论家浅井隆在“日本在2014年破产”中严重警告说，一般国家破产大约是债务为GDP的2倍，日本已濒临破产边缘。

这次地震造成的经济损失一定很大！！
日本是世界第三大经济体！！！

没想到债务那么多，还可以位居世界第三大经济体！！

如果日本破产，综合指数会跌多少呢？

flycrab

没影响，除非日本政府增加公司税来还债，但日本没法这样做，因为如果这样做日本公司可能迁移出国，这招可以的话很多政府都做了。
国家破产跟普通人破产不同，普通人破产可以申请破产保护，拖到死不还，但国家破产只是技术上说法，还是要还，所以…公务员可能受伤最深，可能栽员、栽薪来还债，到时可能看到很多公务员跳楼。

ameitan

那日本就会卖了手头上的美国国债，拉老美下水！

Maxi

要破产

英国应该第一个被担心

plouffle0789

回复 4# Maxi


   英国的债务更严重？

flycrab

日本国债多数是被国人买掉，但现在日本重创，不知会不会日本人拿钱重建家园，没钱买国债，日本政府找不到人买国债，付不出工资给公务员?
但中国政府应该会买的

Maxi

回复  Maxi


   英国的债务更严重？
plouffle0789 发表于 12-3-2011 08:36 PM

   


英国经济长期乏力，债务过高。。。随时步上爱尔兰/希腊等
英镑也大幅度贬值
不过英格兰人确实烂，汽车业管不好，球会也管不好，全部都外人收购

你好

你只问toyota,那honda,suzuki,yamaha,mitsubishi那些又整样？

cheyhaw

派Proton去收购他们

flycrab

那你为何不说向日本招安，把它列入第14个州，天皇成为世袭第十位州元首?

Unlimited2

到时全部 TOYOTA 汽车的 WARRANTY 无效

夏日树

到时全部 TOYOTA 汽车的 WARRANTY 无效
Unlimited2 发表于 13-3-2011 11:49 AM

   不是啊吗？？？

凡人，烦人？

感觉上这里的人都在antI Toyota...

手枪伯01

日本死得好！

活该！！！！哈哈阿

sakuragi_is_me

那你为何不说向日本招安，把它列入第14个州，天皇成为世袭第十位州元首?
flycrab 发表于 13-3-2011 07:08 AM

   可以考虑看看

prince

买proton！！！！大灾难严重打击日本经济，日本人为了减少生活重担，可能会转购价钱较便宜，用完即丢的proton廉价车！！！！proton必冲！！！

guangguang

How Japan's Earthquake Impacts Car Shoppers

As Japan begins to recover from the tragic earthquake and tsunami of last week, there are many questions for U.S. consumers when it comes to one of the country’s chief exports: cars.

All of Japan’s automakers are shutting down their assembly plants this week, with most plants closed through at least Wednesday. There are numerous logistical reasons for the shutdowns including power issues and transportation; let alone the need for employees to reconnect with family and friends in the affected areas of the country.

Few automakers had assembly plants in the area impacted by the tsunami, but many suppliers are based there and have not been heard from since the earthquake, according to reports.

If just one part from one supplier is unavailable a new vehicle cannot be built, leaving a manufacturer to extend the shutdown.

We have a list of all the Japanese manufacturers and the vehicles that are exported for U.S. sale below along with official statements regarding the earthquake and tsunami.

The most notable is Toyota and its Lexus brand. All Lexus cars are built in Japan and exported to the U.S. We noted earlier this month how the brand was already low on U.S. inventory before the quake, and dealers could find themselves with few options to offer shoppers as disruptions mount.

It’s a lack of inventory and the unknown timeframe that will make it hard on car shoppers of these impacted brands and the specific vehicles imported from Japan. A lower supply typically means higher prices or in today’s shopping world, fewer incentives. However, current advertised incentives should still be valid.

There are also a number of Japanese suppliers that send parts to both Japan- and U.S.-based automakers for cars assembled in North America. That means Japan’s earthquake and tsunami could have a far wider impact than just the vehicles listed below.
Honda

“Damage was widespread in the Tochigi area, where Honda has a number of operations. Honda Motor Co., Ltd. has confirmed the fatality of a Honda R&D associate at the Tochigi R&D Center, when a wall collapsed in a cafeteria. The associate was male, 43 years old. More than 30 Honda associates were injured in the Tochigi area from collapsing ceilings and other damage during the earthquake.”

Honda will temporarily close down a wide range of facilities, R&D and engineering centers in Japan from March 14th – 20th.

U.S. Vehicles Potentially Affected: Honda Fit, Honda CR-Z, Honda Insight, Honda FXC Clarity, Acura TSX and Acura RL. A percentage of Honda CR-Vs are also produced in Japan.

Mazda

“Mazda places the highest priority on ensuring the safety of all employees and their families at its suppliers in the affected region. Therefore, Mazda has decided to suspend production at its Hiroshima and Hofu plants from the night shift on March 14 through to the night shift on March 16, 2011.”

U.S. Vehicles Potentially Affected: Mazda3, Mazda2, Mazda5, Mazda MX-5, Mazda RX-8, Mazda CX-7 and Mazda CX-9

Mitsubishi

“We’ve received word from Japan that none of our manufacturing facilities in Japan sustained damage significant enough to affect production. MMC is suspending plant operations on March 14th (Mon) and 15th (Tue), to prioritize safety verifications at our suppliers.”

U.S. Vehicles Potentially Affected: Mitsubishi Lancer, Mitsubishi Outlander and Mitsubishi Outlander Sport

Nissan

“[We’re ] fully cooperating with the government’s request to place national priority on securing electricity for areas in need. Nissan and its group companies will proactively take measures to conserve electricity usage in all of its activities.”

U.S. Vehicles Potentially Affected: Nissan GT-R, Nissan 370Z, Nissan Leaf, Nissan Quest, Nissan Cube, Nissan Murano, Nissan Juke, Infiniti G Series, Infiniti M Series and Infiniti FX Series

Suzuki

“Suzuki Motor Corporation today announced there is currently no reported harm to Suzuki’s personnel, headquarters or manufacturing plants located in the Shizuoka Prefecture region. The earthquake’s epicenter was located 240 miles north of Tokyo while Suzuki’s headquarters are in Hamamatsu City, which is 158 miles south of Tokyo. Suzuki closed all Suzuki Motor Corporation plants in Japan on 14 March because Suzuki placed priority on the safety of all at subsidiaries and suppliers as well as their family members. Suzuki will suspend production at these plants on 15 and 16 March. The operation after 17 will be decided after we assess the situation.”

U.S. Vehicles Potentially Affected: Suzuki Kizashi, Suzuki Grand Vitara and Suzuki SX4

Subaru

Fuji Heavy Industries, parent company of Subaru, has not released a statement regarding its operations. We have reached out the company, but have not received a response.

U.S. Vehicles Potentially Affected: Subaru Impreza and Subaru Forester

Toyota

“We are halting production at all plants in Japan (including subsidiary vehicle manufacturers) from March 14 through March 16.”

U.S. Vehicles Potentially Affected: Scion xB, Scion xD, Scion tC, Toyota Yaris, Toyota 4Runner, Toyota Land Cruiser, Lexus LX 570, Toyota Prius, Toyota FJ Cruiser, Lexus ES, Lexus GS, Lexus GX, Lexus LS, Lexus LX, Lexus LFA, Lexus HS, Lexus IS and Lexus CT 200h


from : http://blogs.cars.com/kickingtir ... s-car-shoppers.html

akeat

很像影响蛮大的？股市一路跌！

plouffle0789

回复 18# akeat


    今天又跌是因为日本核电厂爆炸外泄！！！

jenniehui89

英镑也大幅度贬值 是什么意识哦：？？