"HEB" Hemispherx BioPharma.... 第二帖

napster

怎么那么安静了？
是不是被烧到了？
我在2.3放了，当初1.8买入。后悔＄4的时候没放掉。

现在我只想投机它，不过它还是有一定的价值，1.5？
1.3？

我会再买回来的

葉芬

原帖由 napster 于 25-6-2009 11:31 AM 发表
怎么那么安静了？
是不是被烧到了？
我在2.3放了，当初1.8买入。后悔＄4的时候没放掉。

现在我只想投机它，不过它还是有一定的价值，1.5？
1.3？

我会再买回来的

默默的等著Approval的到來！

  

葉芬

分享： http://seekingalpha.com/article/ ... igen-s-fda-approval

Buy Hemispherix Before Ampligen's FDA Approval
by: David White June 24, 2009

Hemispherix Biopharma (HEB) is awaiting news from the FDA on its NDA application for Ampligen as a treatment for Chronic Fatigue Syndrome. The stock has soared from about $0.38 in March to a high of $4.54. Ampligen has received rave reviews for its efficacy as a flu vaccine adjuvant lately. No less than the Japanese Institute of Health has raved about it. It will clearly be used as a flu adjuvant. It also has myriad other likely uses, most of which HEB has yet to apply for. Longer term this company looks likely to do well. It may get bought out. Shorter term, it is waiting to hear from the FDA.

To me it seems likely that HEB will gain approval. Are some people selling because there is something wrong? That is always possible. However, it seems more likely that people are selling because HEB made a $150M mixed shelf offering recently. Since the market cap of the stock is only approx. $150M, this would have a tremendous dilutory effect on the stock.

How do you decide what is a good price to get in at? I don't think there is a good solution from a fundamental standpoint. There are a lot of variables. Still the prospects for the company do look good for the future. I would be very surprised to see this company fail. I would be very surprised to see Ampligen flop.

I look for buy signals in this case. Yesterday, we got one. HEB went down to $1.50 at the low today. This was near touching its lower Bollinger Band. It snapped quickly back to $1.80. There is tremendous technical support at approx. $1.50. The future looks bright for Ampligen. Drugs that get to this stage in the FDA approval process historically have an 80% likelihood of approval. Ampligen for CFS would be an orphan drug. This further enhances its chances of approval. If you get a chance to buy HEB at $1.50 to $1.80, it is likely a good risk/reward play. HEB should gain approval within the next couple of weeks. The stock would likely shoot upward on that news.

The downside risks are that the company itself will start selling a lot of stock before it gains FDA approval for Ampligen. The market may completely tank in the next two weeks. This would likely drive HEB down (all speculative growth stocks are hit hard in huge downturns). Finally HEB's NDA for Ampligen for CFS could be rejected. From the evidence I have seen, this is unlikely. The probable worst case scenario is that HEB could be asked to do further tests (provide further informational data). This would hurt the stock price considerably, but fortunately the odds of this are much less likely than approval. Ampligen would be an orphan drug for CFS. It has been shown to be at least reasonably effective. It has been shown to be safe in this case. It has also been shown to be safe in a lot of work done for flu.

One caveat is that a new financial report came out on HEB yesterday morning. I am guessing that this may have had something to do with the negative trend of the stock. You have to pay for this report, so I have not bought it. Still it seems unlikely that it really added anything but another opinion about the stock. The stock is a risk. To me it seems like it might be a good one at its current price. Approval could come tomorrow. HEB expects to hear from the FDA in the next two weeks. The markets should wait until after June ends to really tank (if they do). The mutual funds will likely be doing some window dressing buying at the end of the quarter (the end of this month). That should prevent a near term slaughter from happening.

Good luck investing. This is a very uncertain time. Being in cash on the sideline is not necessarily a bad strategy.

m.i.k.e

原帖由 napster 于 25-6-2009 11:31 AM 发表
怎么那么安静了？
是不是被烧到了？
我在2.3放了，当初1.8买入。后悔＄4的时候没放掉。

现在我只想投机它，不过它还是有一定的价值，1.5？
1.3？

我会再买回来的

哟! 你不会是卖了HEB后,就来这里奚落我们吧??!!

其实,FDA 会不会approve Ampligen 的机率仍然是50对50.

如果Ampligen 不被通过,我最多输掉几千美金,也不会全部输光.
如果Ampligen 被通过,我赢几十千美金,也有可能赢超过50千美金.

这样的机率和赔率,比在云顶玩大小还好,我怎样都会守到FDA公布为止,一定要看到底牌才干心.

虽然说FDA approve Ampligen 的机率是50对50,我个人对Ampligen被通过的信心指数高达90%. 只是时间上的问题吧了.

葉芬

原帖由 m.i.k.e 于 25-6-2009 03:57 PM 发表


哟! 你不会是卖了HEB后,就来这里奚落我们吧??!!

其实,FDA 会不会approve Ampligen 的机率仍然是50对50.

如果Ampligen 不被通过,我最多输掉几千美金,也不会全部输光.
如果Ampligen 被通 ...

我給 75 對 25 。

說得很對，Ampligen 會Approve 是時間上的問題罷了。

Gnoit

对， HEB 要hold...
我会hold 到news 出来。 大家一起hold 吧， 现在要看忍功了！
GLTA. cari 的hebber！

葉芬

分享： http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_H/threadview?m=te&bn=27865&tid=244368&mid=244368&tof=24&frt=2#244368

（HEB的其中一股東參加了昨晚的股東大會之感想。）

FDA Delays  

I started really looking over the new drug approvals page at the FDA site tonight. Something really struck me. The vast majority of approvals (99%) have been for 1) generics , 2) new labels , 3) reformulations or 4) manufacturing changes.

Very few New Molecular Entities (NME) that haven't been marketed before have been approved in 2009. April had 2 NME approved. May had 2 NME approved. June has none so far. Delays in approval among these new drugs are very common place - in fact delays are the rule rather than the exception.

One of the NMEs approved in May was Vanda Pharmaceuticals with their schizophrenia drug Fanapt. It was approved on 5/6/09. It's original PDUFA date was July 27, 2008. Here's a Motley Fool article from 2008 on it.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/20...

This delay is not unusual. It isn't something to fear. It is part of the process that will lead to eventual approval. The drug is sound. The company is sound. Don't let the nameless, faceless scammers that pop up on this message board scare you into letting your shares go cheap. If you plan on freaking out and selling cheap, let me know and I'll buy them.

TheMuppet

大家会不会太乐观了？我在美国混那么多年这种事件我看多了。你们在网上所看到的文章根本就不是什么分析文章而是pumper委托人来制造的假谣言利用经验少的散户上当的！当时这票会上到$4完完全全是炒家炒上来的!我不信那个什么doctor carter没参一手！你们会说为什么只跌到$2。当炒家跑了剩下的散户还能做什么？不是cut loss就是hold! 所以现在的股价是一群笨散户在撑腰! approval原该在五月时出卢的。为什么到现在还没有声音呢？愿因就是它家发明的药物有问题所以拖延又在拖延！越托越久被disapprove的几率越高！不信就等着瞧！你们的仙丹被approve不是不可能的！AMEX炒家最厉害的就是它们的狗basher了！等票价突然来个猛跌的时候就是由好消息的时候！醒醒吧菜鸟！现在情势对healthcare不妙！金库是在energy!

napster

hehe
终于有人站在我这里唱反调了。
不过那位仁兄的口气未免太重了。

坦白说，我自从玩医药股后，就开始被套了。
GNBT, STAA, HEB 根本就是pump and dump 的。

除非在便宜的时候买入，否则随时随地送进监牢。

HEB 我等它再跌，我才入场。跌多了自然有反弹。
留3-5粒博大彩。CTIC 也一样。玩小小够了，留些本钱给未来。


大家和气生财。8 Jul 09见面

葉芬

原帖由 TheMuppet 于 25-6-2009 05:15 PM 发表
大家会不会太乐观了？我在美国混那么多年这种事件我看多了。你们在网上所看到的文章根本就不是什么分析文章而是pumper委托人来制造的假谣言利用经验少的散户上当的！当时这票会上到$4完完全全是炒家炒上来的!我不信那 ...

你所說的不是沒有道理。

只不過大家都是成年人，
應該分的清楚什么是投機/投資，
沒有人要你用整副身家睡下去。

對嗎？

葉芬

原帖由 napster 于 25-6-2009 05:23 PM 发表
hehe
终于有人站在我这里唱反调了。
不过那位仁兄的口气未免太重了。

坦白说，我自从玩医药股后，就开始被套了。
GNBT, STAA, HEB 根本就是pump and dump 的。

除非在便宜的时候买入，否则随时随地送 ...

我買進的CTIC及HEB股價，so far 還 ok ...
只有GNBT 高了些些，不過我有《耐性等》。

jochen

原帖由 TheMuppet 于 25-6-2009 05:15 PM 发表
大家会不会太乐观了？我在美国混那么多年这种事件我看多了。你们在网上所看到的文章根本就不是什么分析文章而是pumper委托人来制造的假谣言利用经验少的散户上当的！当时这票会上到$4完完全全是炒家炒上来的!我不信那 ...

我站同  50%  50%。。。

金库在  energy。。。？
上上下下。。。也是看市场好坏！！

我也有看 energy....APL.....从 5.0++----升到 9.0++。。。
后来 美后劲。。。落回 7.0++....

我想问你。。。那么  H1N1...病毒 解决了没有？？？
quarantine 得人越来越多~！！！

药股  还是  ok 的。。。

不过 我个人  不是 hebber....

只是 以现在的趋势来看。。。。

ng33

原帖由 TheMuppet 于 25-6-2009 05:15 PM 发表
大家会不会太乐观了？我在美国混那么多年这种事件我看多了。你们在网上所看到的文章根本就不是什么分析文章而是pumper委托人来制造的假谣言利用经验少的散户上当的！当时这票会上到$4完完全全是炒家炒上来的!我不信那 ...

说得蛮有理的。。。。。。。。。。。。。你是那一位的分身呢？？？？？？？？？？？？？

jochen

从今天来看。。。

满多都是  科技股。。。
intel....seagate...apple...nvdia.....dell...microsoft...yahoo......

tootoo

那个ISP的上网服务比较稳定？

昨晚能够上网，但整晚都不能连接到美国大部分的Websites，更别说买卖股票了！！！！

请问住在大马的朋友，你们是用那个公司的上网服务来买卖美国股票呢？Streamyx?Digi BroadBand, P1 ? 那个配套呢？

我正用着Streamyx，512K。

m.i.k.e

原帖由 napster 于 25-6-2009 05:23 PM 发表
hehe
终于有人站在我这里唱反调了。
不过那位仁兄的口气未免太重了。

...HEB 我等它再跌，我才入场。跌多了自然有反弹。
留3-5粒博大彩。CTIC 也一样。玩小小够了，留些本钱给未来。


大家和气生财。8 Jul 09见面

"8 Jul 09见面"
无法改期了吗?
己经确定人数有.....??

葉芬

原帖由 m.i.k.e 于 26-6-2009 02:56 PM 发表



"8 Jul 09见面"
无法改期了吗?
己经确定人数有.....??

PM Napster看他能不能改期。
我這裏 8 - 10號 任何一天都可以。

napster

叶芬小姐只能8-10来，所以改来改去8-10。
不如你们叫芬小姐更改机票到周末？

葉芬

原帖由 napster 于 26-6-2009 03:49 PM 发表
叶芬小姐只能8-10来，所以改来改去8-10。
不如你们叫芬小姐更改机票到周末？

  要是真的要改在11號早上也行。
我的Flight是在傍晚的。

m.i.k.e

原帖由 napster 于 26-6-2009 03:49 PM 发表
叶芬小姐只能8-10来，所以改来改去8-10。
不如你们叫芬小姐更改机票到周末？

原帖由 葉芬 于 26-6-2009 03:59 PM 发表



  要是真的要改在11號早上也行。
我的Flight是在傍晚的。

hmmmm......有甚么方法可以令到傍晚的那趟flight cancelled 掉....

好了啦! 麦搁黑白讲了....
napster,就不要更改了.我尽量好了.