舉債來投資 MEGAN 值得嗎 ? （九）

白狐狸

old news...

Rating Announcement

Memory Tech Sdn Bhd
RAM revises rating outlook on Memory Tech’s BaIDS, from stable to negative
25 July 2006
       

RAM has revised the rating outlook on Memory Tech Sdn Bhd’s (“MTSB” or “the Company”) RM320 million Bai’ Bithaman Ajil Islamic Debt Securities (2005/2012) (“BaIDS”), from stable to negative. The BaIDS is currently rated A2 by RAM and carries a corporate guarantee from MTSB’s holding company, Megan Media Holding Berhad (“Megan Media” or “the Group”). As MTSB is the main contributor of the Group’s earnings, the rating essentially mirrors Megan Media’s business and financial profiles.

The negative outlook reflects RAM’s concerns about Megan Media’s rising debts to support its capital spending and the prevailing industry depression. The increase in borrowings has resulted in a lower-than-expected debt coverage ratio, and could lead to non-compliance of 2 financial covenants in the Trust Deed for the BaIDS (depending on the interpretation of specific key clauses in the Trust Deed). It is noted that the management is currently in negotiations with the BaIDS holders to address this issue prior to the release of its financial statements for FYE 30 April 2006 (“FY Apr 2006”), so as to avoid an event of non-compliance altogether.

Additionally, the squeeze in the Group’s margins reflected the dynamism and volatility of the blank-data-storage media industry, which offers less comfort vis-a-vis the stability of Megan Media’s earning capacity. Megan Media could also embark on more aggressive capital spending to fuel its expansion into HD-DVD and Blu-Ray technologies, which may yield higher margins.

Financially, Megan Media performed well in FY Apr 2006 and was able to meet RAM’s earlier expectations. It posted a RM249.64 million operating profit before depreciation, interest and tax (“OPBDIT”) on the back of RM1.03 billion of revenue. That said, RAM notes that the global blank-data-storage media industry remains volatile and fast-paced, thus exposing Megan Media to industry fluctuations. This was evident from the numerous challenges faced by the Group in FY Apr 2006 (e.g. increases in polycarbonate prices and lower average selling prices for DVD-Rs due to global oversupply).

Meanwhile, Megan Media’s borrowings increased to RM838.91 million as at end-FY Apr 2006 from RM647.16 million a year earlier, well above the peak of RM700 million that had been anticipated for the tenure of the BaIDS (This is not an imposed limit nor a covenant of any lender to Megan Media). The additional debt, mainly utilised for the purchase of new plants and machinery as well as for working capital, had augmented the Group’s ratio on total debt to equity to 1.78 times, while pushing up its ratio on total debt to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (“EBITDA”) to 3.35 times. Megan Media is currently considering options to reduce its debt burden; RAM will closely monitor further developments on this matter.

RAM notes that the rating outlook could be revised to stable if the Group successfully reduces its gearing level and the industry shows sign of recovery. On the other hand, the rating could be lowered if Megan Media’ s net debt continues to rise and its debt-protection measures weaken as a result of increased capital spending.

Analyst:
Kevin Lim
(603) 7628 1034
kevin@ram.com.my

白狐狸

........ As MTSB is the main contributor of the Group’s earnings, the rating essentially mirrors Megan Media’s business and financial profiles.......

chukh1

原帖由 Mr.Business 于 5-5-2007 06:49 PM 发表
chukh1兄说的有道理，我们还是不要讨论别人的手法。

我刚刚去了解了Amended-PN17的运作。
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/web ... oads/BM_LR_PN17.pdf

我了解到从4/5/2007算起3个交易日内，如果MEGAN宣布 ...

你们继续拉..继续讨论基本面拉..
不要因为我的关系..我是傻的..傻仔来的..
傻的讲的都相信咩...

7064

Mr.Business 一夜间变成了老人家，要多保重，不要因为Megan的事太过的操心。

Mr.Business

我变成老人家？不要歧视我或老人家哦。哈！

PS: 哦，我明白了，你是指我的头像？不错吧, 老子的智慧深啊。

http://baike.baidu.com/view/2237.htm

[ 本帖最后由 Mr.Business 于 5-5-2007 09:49 PM 编辑 ]

7064

他也是伟大的"老人家"啊。。。。

富时金

原帖由 富时金 于 12-4-2007 06:27 PM 发表


也许我的MEGAN-WA没人要的比喻是有点太夸张。。但MEGAN-WA真的买来短期投机还可以，长期投资就不行了。假设他们要获取最大的利益，就是把那些被顾客拖很久的帐都变成坏账，把折旧率大幅提高，MEGAN这时就变成负债累累和亏钱的公司，到时候股价母股跌到RM0.10以下，索性来个资本消减5变1，发新股送给银行们，再来把坏账还原成盈利（因为顾客还了钱），成立一间新公司来廉价收购，新公司的账目做到漂亮一点，又可以上市了。反正杨先生的股都卖到七七八八，MEGAN亏损对他影响也不大，他的新公司就可以获得最大的利益了吧？他的MEGAN-WA似乎也是免费分到的，送给人也不亏。看那80%的小股东敢怎样？以上故事纯属虚构，但也是可行的。

把上个月的故事转来第九大楼，看来剧情真的往我的故事的第一部分“把那些被顾客拖很久的帐都变成坏账”来发展了。 接下来几个季度应该会到“负债累累和亏钱”。到时候我在转这篇故事去新楼。 现在还要买megan难道不怕我的故事的结局吗？

[ 本帖最后由 富时金 于 5-5-2007 10:25 PM 编辑 ]

sunday365

参考一下另一家刚被纳入 PN1/2001 的公司. 霹雳企业　ＧＰＥＲＡＫ Submitting Merchant Bank	:
Company Name	:	GULA PERAK BERHAD
Stock Name	:	GPERAK
Date Announced	:	23/04/2007

Type	:	Announcement
Subject	:	GULA PERAK BERHAD ("GPB" OR "COMPANY") - Proposed variation to the coupon payment dates of the 5-year redeemable convertible secured notes issued by GPB ("RCSN") due on 22 April 2007 and 22 April 2008 to 22 April 2011; - Proposed variation to the redemption date of the RCSN due on 22 April 2008 to 22 April 2011; and - Proposed variation to certain terms of the Trust Deed governing the RCSN.

Contents :

1. INTRODUCTION

In July 2003, GPB had completed a debt restructuring scheme which, inter-alia, involved the issuance of RM288,820,655 nominal value of RCSN ("Debt Restructuring Scheme"). Pursuant to the terms of the trust deed constituting the RCSN ("Trust Deed"), the Company is required to pay a cash coupon of 6% or RM17,240,000 per annum, on 22 April 2007 and 22 April 2008, being the fourth (4th) and fifth (5th) anniversary dates of the RCSN respectively, totalling RM34,480,000.

Notwithstanding that there is a conversion option for the holders of the RCSN ("RCSN Holders") whereby the conversion rate is at RM1.00 nominal value of RCSN for every one (1) new ordinary share of RM1.00 each in GPB ("GPB Share" or "Share"), it is unlikely that the RCSN Holders will convert the RCSN into new GPB Shares in view that the share price of GPB has been trading substantially below the conversion rate for the past 2 years. In all likelihood, the present outstanding RM287,334,466 nominal value of RCSN have to be redeemed by the Company on 22 April 2008.

It was the Company's intention to dispose of the land and properties (i.e. hotels and vacant land for development), forming part of the security for the obligation of the Company to pay the principal sum or nominal value together with any unpaid coupon and other amounts on the RCSN ("Charged Properties") whereby the relevant quantum of proceeds arising from the disposal of the Charged Properties were to be deposited into the sinking fund account ("Sinking Fund Account") for such purposes.

However, due to prevailing and cyclical business conditions in the hotel and property divisions, the divestments of the Charged Properties will take longer than scheduled. Hence, the Company will not have sufficient funds to settle the coupon payments due and to redeem the RCSN.

On even date, the Company defaulted on the coupon payment of RM17,240,000 due on 22 April 2007 and the Board of Directors of GPB ("Board") had announced this default in accordance with Practice Note 1/2001 of the listing requirements of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad.

Notwithstanding the default, the Company wishes to announce that it intends to vary the terms of the RCSN ("Proposed Variations"). On behalf of the Board, RHB Investment Bank Berhad (formerly known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad) ("RHB INVESTBANK") wishes to announce that the Proposed Variations shall comprise the following:

(i) proposed variation to the coupon payment dates of the RCSN due on 22 April 2007 and 22 April 2008 to 22 April 2011;

(ii) proposed variation to the redemption date of the RCSN due on 22 April 2008 to 22 April 2011; and

(iii) proposed variation to certain terms of the Trust Deed governing the RCSN.

Further details on the Proposed Variations are set out in Section 2 below.

2. DETAILS OF THE PROPOSED VARIATIONS

2.1 Proposed variations to the coupon payment and redemption dates

sunday365

ＧＰＥＲＡＫ　在２４／０４　被纳入ＰＮ１　以下是ＧＰＥＲＡＫ在ＰＮ１前后的价位．

18-Apr-07	0.22	0.22	0.20	0.20	-0.010	32,886
19-Apr-07	0.20	0.20	0.19	0.19	-0.010	57,647
20-Apr-07	0.19	0.20	0.19	0.20	0.005	65,258
23-Apr-07	0.20	0.21	0.19	0.19	-0.005	60,848

24-Apr-07	0.19	0.20	0.19	0.19	0.000	50,517
25-Apr-07	0.19	0.19	0.18	0.19	-0.005	51,342
27-Apr-07	0.19	0.19	0.18	0.19	-0.005	45,521
30-Apr-07	0.19	0.20	0.17	0.20	0.020	85,327
3-May-07	0.20	0.22	0.19	0.19	-0.010	181,736
4-May-07	0.19	0.19	0.19	0.19	-0.005	27,826

这件新闻被低调处理．跌无可跌的股，市场对这种新闻没多大反应．

nellhy

有一个疑问，经验不足没听说过所以想问。

有那一个公司出了坏消息然后隔天跟你讲没事了只是口痒？

我没拿票，应该也不是Megan的人吧？

只是八卦想知道一下曾经发生过的事。

这资料对于真相的了解应该有帮助吧。

ZheHui

我想說說，megan 跟住下來如何面對營運的問題呢？
你是供應商，你會還放賬給它嗎？
如供應商，要求什麼東西都要求現金交易，那 megan 如何還有能力營運呢。
現在它的周轉都有問題，它都說了暫時無能力還貨款了，那它還有現金來和供應商拿原料嗎，如拿不到原料，那那些生產線就要停工了，那最主要的 oem 的米飯班主，不是要轉碼頭了，那我想也不用多說了吧。
megan 如在這兩個月內，如沒有新鮮的資金注入，那就大江東去了。

白狐狸

原帖由 chukh1 于 5-5-2007 09:18 PM 发表


你们继续拉..继续讨论基本面拉..
不要因为我的关系..我是傻的..傻仔来的..
傻的讲的都相信咩...

不好意思，骚扰你了，在下不大会看图。最近无聊学看。
煤岸的图我用bolinger band,accum/dist 和 cmf (21 days)来看，如果就如各位所说有“庄”收票，bolinger band可以不看了。accum / dist 和 cmf (21 days) 并没有收票的痕迹。(几场的场外交易应该不会materialise到可让他们操盘吧？)。为何认为有庄家大算在短期拉抬呢？煤岸的public shareholding要收票坏消息确实可以加快速度。但这会影响它的creditability和大众image。难道煤岸不想做生意了？
透过bursa 公布的消息差不多以接近定论了。煤岸因该不可能第二天笑笑说：“没舍啦，都解决了。”
subsidiary loan还不起，asset 被crystalise时不够的话，煤岸相信也难逃法网（normally holding company become gurantor of subsi loan)。就算是trade creditor而不关loan得事，东窗事发了债主难道不会一拥而上讨债？materialise group debt并不好玩，加上现金流。。。。他怎么还能做庄？（印度阿查拔金相助，一起炒，杨董ok吗？可能性大吗？哎，不懂，请高人指点。。）

如果这样的公司是煤岸的话。。。举债来投资megan 应该改为举债来投机megan了。

对不？

高人可否指点指点？

ZheHui

別再想庄家論了，就因為是庄家論，所以才會給自己一個理由進場。
再說，庄家是收外面的票的，並沒有庄家是收自家的票來炒的。

白狐狸

原帖由 ZheHui 于 6-5-2007 12:03 AM 发表
別再想庄家論了，就因為是庄家論，所以才會給自己一個理由進場。
再說，庄家是收外面的票的，並沒有庄家是收自家的票來炒的。

有的。that's y 有资本回购的限制（enforce in 199x years)。但，根据同行(audit line)的朋友说，他们时常会audit到一些老板用multiple investment holding company（not related to the own company)来“进出”。

ZheHui

是啊，可能我不夠理解吧。
我只會用我的思維去想問題。

sunday365

MEGAN 这次的失策是Trade Receivable 处理上出了问题. 才演变成周转不灵. Alice K 是该被炒的!
生意上MEGAN还有客户,还有生产能力. 接下来是看MEGAN如何解决问题.不必把事情想得那么悲观.


MEGAN Trade Receivable 真的是天文数字! 我的公司没有收到客户的BANK GUARANTEE是不出货的. 这是公司保护自己的POLICY.

[ 本帖最后由 sunday365 于 6-5-2007 12:25 AM 编辑 ]

cct2048

原帖由 sunday365 于 6-5-2007 12:23 AM 发表
MEGAN 这次的失策是Trade Receivable 处理上出了问题. 才演变成周转不灵. Alice K 是该被炒的!
生意上MEGAN还有客户,还有生产能力. 接下来是看MEGAN如何解决问题.不必把事情想得那么悲观.


MEGAN Trade Re ...

[fly]
megan 为了争生意
付出惨痛的代价
[/fly]

ZheHui

公司自己收不到自己的錢，是最夠力的。

ZheHui

原帖由 sunday365 于 6-5-2007 12:23 AM 发表
MEGAN 这次的失策是Trade Receivable 处理上出了问题. 才演变成周转不灵. Alice K 是该被炒的!
生意上MEGAN还有客户,还有生产能力. 接下来是看MEGAN如何解决问题.不必把事情想得那么悲观.


MEGAN Trade Re ...

如沒有錢拿原料，那如何來生產力呢？
看看 112 樓。

[ 本帖最后由 ZheHui 于 6-5-2007 12:31 AM 编辑 ]

sunday365

原帖由 ZheHui 于 6-5-2007 12:30 AM 发表

如沒有錢拿原料，那如何來生產力呢？
看看 112 樓。

不必把事情想得那么悲观.MEGAN不是第一天做生意,这种事总有解决的方法.