2008入场策略

Mr.Business

新闻。

Asia Needs to Wake Up and Smell Fear in Markets: William Pesek
Commentary by William Pesek

Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Let's be blunt: Asia is pretty lame in the cooperation department.

Sure, it has all these highfalutin groups, such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, that purport to bring the region together. Asean, along with the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, is proving toothless as global markets effectively crash.

It's heartening to see Southeast Asian officials and their counterparts from Japan, China and South Korea considering plans to rescue financial institutions facing liquidity problems or holding distressed assets. Should investors hold their collective breath for these modest steps to play out?

Not when you consider the sense of denial pervading Asia, evidenced by comments by Philippine Finance Secretary Gary Teves. While explaining how Asian officials plan to maintain calm, Teves said: ``Despite us being in a better position, we would like to convey a message we're still there to prepare ourselves just in case the financial crisis hits Asean.''

Just in case? We're way beyond that. With higher food and energy costs pushing more Filipinos into poverty, market turmoil forcing Asian governments to delay bond issues and Indonesia closing its stock market for three days, ``just in case'' doesn't pass the laugh test.

Korea's Meltdown

Neither does Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso's call for the U.S. to act faster to fix the credit crisis. The message is fine given the dismal state of the U.S. economy; the messenger isn't. Japan lecturing anyone on banks and avoiding recession?

Over in Korea, leaders are too busy to lecture. Stocks are plunging and the won is down the most since the 1997 Asian crisis after Standard & Poor's said banks may struggle to refinance their debt.

Korea was the post-crisis success case. Now, just as in the late 1990s, investors are concerned about the ability of Korean banks to service debt. Some Korean companies didn't learn the lessons of a decade ago, issuing too much short-term debt in foreign currencies.

Yet Korea isn't Iceland. The need for President Lee Myung Bak to come out and say Korea isn't crisis-bound speaks volumes about Asia's precarious place in a worsening global economy.

It's intriguing that the three nations that accepted International Monetary Fund bailouts a decade ago are among the hardest hit. Thailand's woes involve politics, Korea's are about its dependence on exports, and Indonesia's relate to market vulnerability. What all have in common is a lingering perception problem about the safety of Asia's emerging markets.

Since 1997

Asia has come a long way since 1997. That message won't resonate if the region doesn't act fast. For all the talk about brotherhood, Asia competes far more than it joins forces.

How might an Asian effort look? The multilateral approach taken by European Union members after weeks of go-it-alone strategies offers clues. While Asia lacks an EU, it would be great to see China, with $1.9 trillion of reserves, say it will work with Japan, Korea and Southeast Asia to provide assistance as needed. Neighbors should make the same pledge to China.

Some kind of Asia-wide communique endorsing efforts by the U.S. and Europe would help, too. If nothing else, it might dispel fears central banks are about to dump trillions of dollars of U.S. Treasuries.

Some U.S. officials see that risk. ``Obviously, we've got an immediate crisis right now,'' Presidential candidate Barack Obama said on Oct. 15. ``But nothing is more important than us no longer borrowing $700 billion or more from China and sending it to Saudi Arabia. It's mortgaging our children's future.''

Lost Decade?

The trouble is that much of the U.S. is in denial about its ability to finance imbalances with overseas money. Denial also pervades across the Pacific. Many cling to a delusional sense that the region can ride out a U.S. recession.

Asia should prepare for something worse. A Japan-like ``lost decade'' isn't the most likely scenario for the U.S. Yet with U.S. rates likely to go even lower, the biggest economy may be edging closer to the ``liquidity trap'' that befell Japan.

Some U.S. Treasury bill yields are below the Federal Reserve's 1.5 percent benchmark rate. If that arrangement doesn't boost demand for credit over time, the U.S. will be in a situation where monetary policy has lost all traction.

That would be a crisis in itself. Plunging U.S. asset markets are pulling Asia's lower. A prolonged period of highly indebted Americans rebuilding savings will make Asian leaders regret not doing more to create strong domestic markets.

The U.S.'s comeuppance has inspired gloating in a region still smarting over Washington's lectures these last 10 years. A significantly hobbled U.S. economy isn't in Asia's interest.

A decade ago, U.S. growth offered stability. As the $14 trillion U.S. economy slides, the world lacks a consumer market of last resort. Japan is recession-bound, Europe is slowing and neither China nor India nor Brazil is ready to fill the void.

Asia needs to wake up, smell the growing sense of fear in markets and do something about it. There is no time to waste.

(William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ne ... TuCw&refer=home

老散一名

原帖由 悶蛋 于 17-10-2008 10:02 AM 发表

东和  

有關鋼鐵生意的公司，盈利去到高峰時就要小心了。

loong81

请问老散有收东和吗？

老散一名

現在還沒有，东和我一直有跟進。
現在價錢老散我已經滿意，但，時機我還不滿意。

廉政行动

我在2007年2月从报章看到美国次级房贷的新闻，当时我就断定美国必定会发生金融危机。不过那时候的市场还出于上升的阶段，全球的热钱到处流窜。
我从2007年2月至3月陆陆续续把手头上的股票卖掉，大约80%。
从那时起我一直在等待金融风暴的发生，现在的股灾已经超越我的预估。
金融危机已经演变成信用危机了，相信未来的一年全球股市会跌到最低点。

我10/10开始入市，PBB买进9.20 ,今天8.60。
HLF买进4.04，现在4.14。
我不等钱用，所有股票都会无限期持有，需要用到钱才会卖股。
我不玩share margin,从不借钱买股，坚持只投资不投机。

我的做法是每个月入市买一点。
平均风险和价格。

我去年2月预测到股灾，不是我比别人厉害，而是我比别人用功。
我每天都阅读大量的资料，平均每天3小时以上。
凭我对97年东南亚金融风暴的深入了解，我分析美国的危机会比97更严重。

在此只想奉劝那些新手，脚踏实地，一分耕耘一分收获。
不要赌，认真地做功课，不明白就不要买。
不要跟风，不要听消息。

secondbrother

太多人执着＂长期投资＂和 ＂100％投资来开番论＂而忽列了风险。长期投资依然可行但对象少之又少，尤其是在大马。也以为价值投资是不需要任何策略的，我虽然没有完全离场，但也伤得不重。我们必须了解 ben graham 说的 market fluctuation 背后所要带出的意义，也就是说要 心理上 和 金钱上 准备面对它。

在这个阶段，选好目标，然后分阶段（股价）入场 或 分时间入场，才是上策。一个朋友告诉我，现在是信心的问题。他说 dot com bubble 时，他没有信心而离场，911 时也没有而离场，iraq war 没有信心而离场。事过后，他才发现失去赚钱的机会，这次他说他无论如何都要把握机会。

[ 本帖最后由 secondbrother 于 17-10-2008 01:56 PM 编辑 ]

密码侦探

一天跌一点 一天跌一点
"看来"很底点了 买!!
结果
一天又跌一点 一天又跌一点
还有得跌? 我不信邪, 我 买!!
结果
一天又跌一点 一天又跌一点
WAT!! PN17 !!!

cct2048

原帖由 老散一名 于 17-10-2008 12:06 PM 发表
現在還沒有，东和我一直有跟進。
現在價錢老散我已經滿意，但，時機我還不滿意。

马来股市的暴风雪要来了
老散也预备好寒衣了吗 ？

密码侦探

欧洲打动不到亚洲心 马股要倒了

老散一名

原帖由 cct2048 于 17-10-2008 03:31 PM 发表



马来股市的暴风雪要来了
老散也预备好寒衣了吗 ？

哈哈，老散我輸到老底都甩左。
現在雙眼噴火，周身都熱辣辣。
醬 ge 情形之下，老散要寒衣來做咩。

cct2048

原帖由 密码侦探 于 17-10-2008 03:35 PM 发表
欧洲打动不到亚洲心 马股要倒了

估计巫统那群二世祖已经出清手头的股票
so down down  ...

cct2048

原帖由 老散一名 于 17-10-2008 03:36 PM 发表

哈哈，老散我輸到老底都甩左。
現在雙眼噴火，周身都熱辣辣。
醬 ge 情形之下，老散要寒衣來做咩。

御寒
还会更泠

密码侦探

这样的话,恐怕会一直泻着下

loong81

600点见吧！

密码侦探

大蛇出洞 老鼠满地跑

老散一名

哈哈，如果三個月前講會跌破 900 點，有人會信你嗎。
現在 906.90 點。

Mr.Business

加油。今天就破900点吧。。。

goodluck88

KLCI没有破。。。
但是FKLI破了。。

悶蛋

原帖由 secondbrother 于 17-10-2008 01:54 PM 发表
太多人执着＂长期投资＂和 ＂100％投资来开番论＂而忽列了风险。长期投资依然可行但对象少之又少，尤其是在大马。也以为价值投资是不需要任何策略的

二哥，这些都是智慧来的，
但愿这次股灾严重些，给小子多点提示，
小子这两年的纸上亏损经验决不要是白费的，
下次一定更好

chon

等待半年，终于等到这一日，，，，！

二哥的智慧不是三言两语就可以了解的，更何况只在网上交流，
如果可以当面畅谈，，，那当然可以更加受益无穷，
其实老散叔叔的投资智慧与经历也不差，
回想一月时他跟我畅谈了四个钟，真神奇，畅谈完毕之后，
那一个星期我就卖完手上的股票，所以我时常说，
老散叔叔救了我一条命。